Trend Analysis

Overview

Trend Analysis shows whether a raw metric, viewable in single-destination views, is increasing, decreasing, or staying flat over your selected time frame. This is critical for identifying:

• Degradation: Is latency creeping up over months?

• Improvement: Is a provider's stability improving after infrastructure upgrades?

• Stability: Is performance holding steady (ideal for long-term contracts)?

Provider Intelligence uses an algorithm that ensures that the trend reflects a statistically significant movement over time rather than just temporary fluctuations.

Trend Calculation

1. Create a Time Index: Assign a sequential index to each hour in the time series:

   Hour	Time Index
   1	1
   2	2
   3	3
   ...	...
   720	720

2. Measure the relationship (correlation): The algorithm analyzes the relationship between the performance metric values and the linear time index. It looks for how consistently the two variables move together:

   • Positive correlation: If the metric values tend to increase as the time index increases, it suggests an upward trajectory.

   • Negative correlation: If the metric values tend to decrease as the time index increases, it suggests a downward trajectory.

   • No correlation: If the metric values fluctuate randomly or stay the same regardless of time, there is no strong correlation.

   The algorithm applies a single value to the correlation (a coefficient) in a range from −1 (perfect negative correlation) to +1 (perfect positive correlation).

3. Map to trend lines: The system applies specific thresholds to this coefficient to provide a user-friendly line on the results page:

   Coefficient Range	Trend Line (most metrics)	Trend line (throughput)*
   -1.00 to -0.50	Down, green (improving)	Up, red (improving)
   -0.50 to +0.50	Flat, gray (no significant trend)	Flat, gray (no significant trend)
   +0.50 to +1.00	Up, red (worsening)	Down, green (worsening)

   * Most metrics perform better at lower values. Throughput alone performs better at higher values.

Example: Latency Increasing

Hour	Latency (ms)
1	10
2	12
3	15
4	18
5	20

Coefficient: +0.95

Trend: the raw metric trend line points up (worsening: lower values are better).

Trend Variability

Trends are calculated separately for each percentile (P5, P50, etc.) and for each time frame (1, 3, 6 months). This means:

• You might see the latency trend point down (improving) at P95 but flat at P50, indicating that worst-case performance is improving while typical performance remains steady.

• The latency trend might point up (worsening) over 6 months but flat over 1 month, indicating latency worsened in earlier months, but has been steady over the last month.